Aude — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aude
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aude — 1ère circonscription | 53.3% | 30.5% | 12.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageAude | 51.4%+1.9 | 29.1%+1.3 | 11.6%+0.9 | 3.4%−1.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+17.3 | 29.0%+1.4 | 17.0%−4.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christophe BARTHÈS · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 22.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe BARTHÈS Elected | RN and allies | 32,916 | 49.3 |
| Philippe POUTOU | Left (NFP) | 12,475 | 18.7 |
| Jean-Claude PEREZ | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,252 | 16.9 |
| Aurélien TURCHETTO | Left (NFP) | 8,463 | 12.7 |
| Fabrice COFFINET | RN and allies | 823 | 1.2 |
| Laure-Nelly AMALRIC | Centre (Ensemble) | 465 | 0.7 |
| Nicole GADRAT | Far left | 327 | 0.5 |
| Jean-Marc MARIN | LR and allies | 4 | 0.0 |
| Monique FERRÉ | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aude — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated