Tarn — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Tarn
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarn — 1ère circonscription | 43.6% | 27.8% | 24.4% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageTarn | 44.0%−0.4 | 27.7%+0.1 | 21.5%+2.9 | 2.9%−0.9 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.7 | 29.0%−1.3 | 17.0%+7.4 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Philippe BONNECARRERE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frédéric CABROLIER | RN and allies | 23,237 | 39.5 |
| Philippe BONNECARRERE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,352 | 29.5 |
| Margot LAPEYRE | Left (NFP) | 16,673 | 28.4 |
| Denis ROUQUETTE | RN and allies | 769 | 1.3 |
| Eric CHAVEGRAND | Far left | 567 | 1.0 |
| Orphée PAUTHIER | Left (NFP) | 178 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tarn — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aveyron — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Tarn — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated