Tarn — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Tarn
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarn — 3ème circonscription | 46.3% | 24.5% | 23.5% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageTarn | 44.0%+2.3 | 27.7%−3.2 | 21.5%+2.0 | 2.9%+0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+10.3 | 29.0%−4.5 | 17.0%+6.5 | 3.9%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean TERLIER · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 21.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guilhem CARAYON | RN and allies | 31,748 | 43.5 |
| Jean TERLIER Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,870 | 28.6 |
| Julien LASSALLE | Left (NFP) | 18,525 | 25.4 |
| Claire DAUGÉ | Others | 965 | 1.3 |
| Chantal TRESSENS | Far left | 767 | 1.1 |
| Alban AZAIS | Sovereignists | 95 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tarn — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Aude — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated