Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription | 39.8% | 31.3% | 23.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%+1.6 | 33.4%−2.1 | 22.5%+0.4 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+10.8 | 36.0%−4.7 | 17.0%+6.0 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Anne STAMBACH-TERRENOIR · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 8.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anne STAMBACH-TERRENOIR Elected | Left (NFP) | 30,402 | 40.5 |
| Jean-Luc LAGLEIZE | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,934 | 27.9 |
| Frank KHALIFA | RN and allies | 19,815 | 26.4 |
| Pauline LORANS | RN and allies | 1,366 | 1.8 |
| Maxime MAYORAL | Greens | 1,306 | 1.7 |
| Arthur NESTIER | Greens | 606 | 0.8 |
| Clotilde BARTHÉLÉMY | Far left | 588 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated