Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription | 46.5% | 29.2% | 19.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%+8.3 | 33.4%−4.2 | 22.5%−3.1 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+17.5 | 36.0%−6.7 | 17.0%+2.4 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christine ARRIGHI · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 17.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christine ARRIGHI Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,472 | 47.5 |
| Caroline BEOUT | RN and allies | 13,865 | 24.9 |
| Florian DELRIEU | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,451 | 22.4 |
| Camille CLINET | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,202 | 2.2 |
| Christelle FILIPPI | RN and allies | 813 | 1.5 |
| Henri MARTIN | Far left | 569 | 1.0 |
| Nathanaëlle LOUBET--SRUH | Far left | 322 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated