Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription | 52.4% | 23.8% | 20.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%+14.1 | 22.5%+1.3 | 33.4%−13.3 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+23.3 | 17.0%+6.8 | 36.0%−15.9 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
François PIQUEMAL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 28.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| François PIQUEMAL Elected | Left (NFP) | 25,681 | 53.4 |
| Margaux PECH | Centre (Ensemble) | 12,950 | 26.9 |
| Audrey LARREGLE | RN and allies | 7,531 | 15.7 |
| Jacme DELMAS | Centre (Ensemble) | 945 | 2.0 |
| Arthur COTTREL | RN and allies | 734 | 1.5 |
| Patrick MARCIREAU | Far left | 262 | 0.5 |
| Paul CAZALS | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated