Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription | 44.5% | 26.0% | 24.7% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%+6.3 | 33.4%−7.5 | 22.5%+2.2 | 2.2%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+15.5 | 36.0%−10.0 | 17.0%+7.7 | 3.9%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Hadrien CLOUET · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 18.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hadrien CLOUET Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,985 | 45.5 |
| Elodie HOBET | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,063 | 27.1 |
| Lola CHAMBELIN | RN and allies | 12,636 | 21.3 |
| Evelyne BOUJAT | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,601 | 2.7 |
| Jean-Marie TROUILLET | RN and allies | 1,028 | 1.7 |
| Alexis DE BERRANGER | Others | 574 | 1.0 |
| Olivier LE PENVEN | Far left | 390 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated