Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription | 35.3% | 33.3% | 24.7% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 33.4%+1.8 | 38.2%−4.9 | 22.5%+2.1 | 0.5%+2.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−0.7 | 29.0%+4.3 | 17.0%+7.6 | 0.4%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Arnaud SIMION · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud SIMION Elected | Left (NFP) | 29,031 | 34.0 |
| Nadine DEMANGE-FIERLEJ | RN and allies | 26,379 | 30.9 |
| Monique IBORRA | Centre (Ensemble) | 25,256 | 29.6 |
| Sandra LAPORTE | Greens | 2,773 | 3.3 |
| Annaël GÉRARD | RN and allies | 1,104 | 1.3 |
| Michèle Marie Rose Albertine PUEL | Far left | 774 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated