Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription | 44.2% | 26.8% | 24.3% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 33.4%+10.8 | 38.2%−11.4 | 22.5%+1.8 | 2.2% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.2 | 29.0%−2.3 | 17.0%+7.3 | 3.9%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-François PORTARRIEU · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 17.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julien LEONARDELLI | RN and allies | 29,897 | 39.5 |
| Jean-François PORTARRIEU Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 22,267 | 29.4 |
| Sylvie ESPAGNOLLE | Left (NFP) | 20,925 | 27.7 |
| Dominique PIUSSAN | RN and allies | 1,443 | 1.9 |
| Michel LASERGE | Far left | 1,000 | 1.3 |
| Sylvie BONNEMAISON | Others | 121 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated