Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription | 35.2% | 29.5% | 25.6% | 6.9% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%−3.0 | 22.5%+6.9 | 33.4%−7.9 | 2.1%+4.8 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+6.2 | 17.0%+12.4 | 36.0%−10.4 | 12.2%−5.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Corinne VIGNON · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 5.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agathe ROBY | Left (NFP) | 21,064 | 34.6 |
| Corinne VIGNON Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 20,227 | 33.2 |
| Stéphanie ALARCON | RN and allies | 13,022 | 21.4 |
| Clément DELMAS | LR and allies | 3,307 | 5.4 |
| Baptiste ROBERT | Left (NFP) | 828 | 1.4 |
| Marie-Pierre BOUCHET | Centre (Ensemble) | 731 | 1.2 |
| Philippe SOLERI | RN and allies | 683 | 1.1 |
| Domitille ALLORANT | Greens | 613 | 1.0 |
| Malena ADRADA | Far left | 254 | 0.4 |
| Philippe MAURY | LR and allies | 162 | 0.3 |
| Noël NÉMOUTHÉ | Others | 29 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated