Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 0.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription | 35.5% | 34.8% | 25.0% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 38.2%−2.7 | 33.4%+1.4 | 22.5%+2.5 | 2.2%+0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+6.5 | 36.0%−1.1 | 17.0%+8.0 | 3.9%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jacques OBERTI · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 0.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques OBERTI Elected | Left (NFP) | 28,631 | 36.2 |
| Caroline FALGAS-COLOMINA | RN and allies | 23,993 | 30.4 |
| Dominique FAURE | Centre (Ensemble) | 22,910 | 29.0 |
| Romain GRESLE | RN and allies | 1,123 | 1.4 |
| Frédérique SOULIER | Centre (Ensemble) | 728 | 0.9 |
| Adrien BOURGEADE | Greens | 558 | 0.7 |
| Lucile SOUCHE | Far left | 523 | 0.7 |
| Gilles CORSO | Others | 389 | 0.5 |
| Arlette BOUZON | Others | 158 | 0.2 |
| François UBEDA | LR and allies | 1 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated