Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription | 43.2% | 32.3% | 19.8% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 33.4%+9.8 | 38.2%−6.0 | 22.5%−2.8 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+7.2 | 29.0%+3.2 | 17.0%+2.7 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Christophe BEX · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaëtan INARD | RN and allies | 30,042 | 40.4 |
| Christophe BEX Elected | Left (NFP) | 24,681 | 33.2 |
| Elisabeth TOUTUT-PICARD | Centre (Ensemble) | 18,462 | 24.8 |
| Hervé BERGNES | Far left | 1,223 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Ariège — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated