Ariège — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ariège
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariège — 2ème circonscription | 45.0% | 43.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageAriège | 46.2%−1.2 | 42.9%+0.2 | 3.5%+2.3 | 5.5%−1.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+16.0 | 36.0%+7.1 | 12.2%−6.4 | 1.1%+3.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent PANIFOUS · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laurent PANIFOUS Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,911 | 48.3 |
| Michèle ALOZY | RN and allies | 16,678 | 40.4 |
| Yann DE KERIMEL | LR and allies | 2,023 | 4.9 |
| Théodora TESTARD | Far left | 1,852 | 4.5 |
| Alexandra TARRIEUX-ANTRANIKIAN | RN and allies | 804 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Ariège — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Haute-Garonne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated