Ariège — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Ariège
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 54%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Far left | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariège — 1ère circonscription | 47.4% | 42.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAriège | 46.2%+1.2 | 42.9%−0.2 | 5.5%+1.3 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+18.4 | 36.0%+6.7 | 1.1%+5.7 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Martine FROGER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martine FROGER Elected | Left (NFP) | 19,245 | 50.7 |
| Jean-Marc GARNIER | RN and allies | 15,049 | 39.7 |
| Gisèle LAPEYRE | Far left | 2,756 | 7.3 |
| Pascal MASCETTI | RN and allies | 881 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ariège — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated