Aude — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aude
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aude — 3ème circonscription | 48.6% | 31.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% |
| Provincial averageAude | 51.4%−2.9 | 29.1%+2.6 | 11.6%−3.6 | 3.7%+3.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+12.6 | 29.0%+2.7 | 17.0%−9.0 | 12.2%−4.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Julien RANCOULE · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 16.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julien RANCOULE Elected | RN and allies | 27,946 | 44.7 |
| Philippe ANDRIEU | Left (NFP) | 20,426 | 32.7 |
| Sylvie SOREL-LESTIN | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,155 | 13.0 |
| Jean-François LECLERC | LR and allies | 2,096 | 3.4 |
| Christine CHAMPION | LR and allies | 1,868 | 3.0 |
| Bernard BIANCO | Others | 759 | 1.2 |
| Nathalie MARTEEL | RN and allies | 681 | 1.1 |
| Dominique GALONNIER | Far left | 585 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aude — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Tarn — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated