Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Haute-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription | 44.6% | 36.0% | 11.1% | 4.3% |
| Provincial averageHaute-Garonne | 33.4%+11.1 | 38.2%−2.3 | 22.5%−11.4 | 2.1%+2.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+8.6 | 29.0%+6.9 | 17.0%−5.9 | 12.2%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Joël AVIRAGNET · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loïc DELCHARD | RN and allies | 23,893 | 40.5 |
| Joël AVIRAGNET Elected | Left (NFP) | 21,751 | 36.9 |
| Céline LAURENTIES-BARRERE | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,227 | 15.7 |
| Wilfried SERRE | LR and allies | 1,805 | 3.1 |
| Lucie VIOLA | Sovereignists | 746 | 1.3 |
| Alain PERES | RN and allies | 728 | 1.2 |
| Martine GUIRAUD | Far left | 536 | 0.9 |
| Dominique DARROZÉS | Centre (Ensemble) | 257 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription Others, competitive
- Haute-Garonne — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Ariège — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Gers — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Haute-Garonne — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated