Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Hautes-Pyrénées
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives another bloc a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 35%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Others | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription | 36.2% | 29.6% | 27.3% | 6.0% |
| Provincial averageHautes-Pyrénées | 38.6%−2.4 | 17.0%+12.6 | 27.2% | 6.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+0.3 | 3.9%+25.7 | 29.0%−1.7 | 12.2%−6.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sylvie FERRER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: another bloc ahead by 6.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Christine SORIN | RN and allies | 20,272 | 34.1 |
| Sylvie FERRER Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,564 | 29.5 |
| Jean-Bernard SEMPASTOUS | Others | 14,776 | 24.8 |
| Philippe EVON | LR and allies | 3,047 | 5.1 |
| Pierre CLARET | Others | 2,626 | 4.4 |
| Catherine BONNECARRERE | RN and allies | 656 | 1.1 |
| Maria SAEZ | Far left | 533 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gers — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Gers — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated