Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Hautes-Pyrénées
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription | 41.0% | 27.2% | 19.9% | 6.5% |
| Provincial averageHautes-Pyrénées | 38.6%+2.4 | 27.2% | 9.9%+9.9 | 6.2%+0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+5.0 | 29.0%−1.8 | 17.0%+2.8 | 12.2%−5.8 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Denis FÉGNÉ · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier MONTEIL | RN and allies | 22,436 | 37.0 |
| Denis FÉGNÉ Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,055 | 28.1 |
| Benoit MOURNET | Centre (Ensemble) | 15,121 | 24.9 |
| Jacques BÉHAGUE | LR and allies | 3,184 | 5.2 |
| Jean-Marc DABAT | Others | 1,486 | 2.4 |
| Claude ALVES DA CUNHA | RN and allies | 735 | 1.2 |
| François MEUNIER | Far left | 692 | 1.1 |
| Ali EL MARSNI | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription Others, competitive
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Gers — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated