Gers — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Gers
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gers — 1ère circonscription | 39.9% | 26.4% | 26.0% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageGers | 38.8%+1.1 | 34.6%−8.1 | 13.0%+13.0 | 4.1%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+3.9 | 29.0%−2.6 | 17.0%+8.9 | 3.9%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-René CAZENEUVE · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 13.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc YELMA | RN and allies | 18,575 | 35.7 |
| Jean-René CAZENEUVE Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,072 | 30.9 |
| Pascal LEVIEUX | Left (NFP) | 14,129 | 27.2 |
| Alexis BOUDAUD ANDUAGA | Greens | 1,375 | 2.6 |
| Ludovic LARRÉ | Others | 959 | 1.8 |
| Aurore CAZES | RN and allies | 587 | 1.1 |
| Jean-Louis CHARETON | Far left | 296 | 0.6 |
| Adrien AYMES | Others | 16 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gers — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Hautes-Pyrénées — 1ère circonscription Others, competitive
- Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hautes-Pyrénées — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated