Tarn — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Tarn
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarn — 2ème circonscription | 42.1% | 30.7% | 16.7% | 6.6% |
| Provincial averageTarn | 44.0%−1.9 | 27.7%+3.0 | 21.5%−4.9 | 3.0%+3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+6.1 | 29.0%+1.7 | 17.0%−0.3 | 12.2%−5.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Karen ERODI · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 11.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julien BACOU | RN and allies | 28,850 | 37.9 |
| Karen ERODI Elected | Left (NFP) | 24,048 | 31.6 |
| Pierre VERDIER | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,501 | 21.7 |
| Thierno BAH | LR and allies | 4,082 | 5.4 |
| Joël ENCONTRE | Others | 1,058 | 1.4 |
| Frederic LAMOUCHE | RN and allies | 989 | 1.3 |
| Boris GIMENEZ SASTRE | Far left | 512 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Haute-Garonne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated