Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Tarn-et-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription | 46.7% | 35.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageTarn-et-Garonne | 49.3%−2.6 | 34.3%+1.6 | 10.9%+0.3 | 2.8%+0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+10.7 | 29.0%+6.8 | 17.0%−5.8 | 3.9%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Brigitte BAREGES · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brigitte BAREGES Elected | RN and allies | 27,772 | 43.9 |
| Valérie RABAULT | Left (NFP) | 23,271 | 36.8 |
| Catherine SIMONIN-BENAZET | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,791 | 15.5 |
| Richard BLANCO | Far left | 1,178 | 1.9 |
| Jean-François GRILHAULT DES FONTAINES | Others | 769 | 1.2 |
| Alain BRU | Centre (Ensemble) | 439 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tarn — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Lot — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated