Lot — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Lot
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lot — 1ère circonscription | 43.2% | 26.7% | 23.5% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageLot | 22.2%+21.0 | 30.0%−3.3 | 30.6%−7.2 | 12.9%−9.0 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+31.0 | 36.0%−9.3 | 29.0%−5.6 | 17.0%−13.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Aurélien PRADIÉ · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 16.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurélien PRADIÉ Elected | LR and allies | 22,180 | 42.3 |
| Elsa BOUGEARD | Left (NFP) | 12,775 | 24.3 |
| Slavka MIHAYLOVA | RN and allies | 12,108 | 23.1 |
| Frédéric DECREMPS | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,689 | 8.9 |
| François TESSON | RN and allies | 398 | 0.8 |
| Ghislain DOMENECH | Far left | 353 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lot — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Dordogne — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Corrèze — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated