Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Tarn-et-Garonne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarn-et-Garonne — 2ème circonscription | 51.9% | 32.6% | 10.6% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageTarn-et-Garonne | 49.3%+2.6 | 34.3%−1.6 | 10.9%−0.3 | 2.8%−0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+15.9 | 29.0%+3.6 | 17.0%−6.4 | 3.9%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Marine HAMELET · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 19.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine HAMELET Elected | RN and allies | 32,578 | 49.2 |
| Claudie CHRETIEN | Left (NFP) | 12,286 | 18.5 |
| Jules DUFFAUT | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,335 | 15.6 |
| Anne IUS | Left (NFP) | 9,952 | 15.0 |
| Françoise RATSIMBA | Far left | 791 | 1.2 |
| Claire AYMES | Others | 310 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Haute-Garonne — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Lot-et-Garonne — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Garonne — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Lot-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated