Aveyron — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aveyron
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 72%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Sovereignists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveyron — 2ème circonscription | 36.0% | 31.8% | 25.5% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageAveyron | 36.3%−0.3 | 27.3%+4.6 | 30.5%−5.0 | 0.8%+1.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% | 29.0%+2.8 | 17.0%+8.4 | 0.3%+2.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Laurent ALEXANDRE · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 4.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Christine PAROLIN | RN and allies | 15,923 | 33.1 |
| Laurent ALEXANDRE Elected | Left (NFP) | 15,738 | 32.7 |
| Samuel DEGUARA | Centre (Ensemble) | 14,690 | 30.6 |
| Jean-Philippe ARMET | Sovereignists | 1,141 | 2.4 |
| Lucile EL HEDRI | Far left | 595 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aveyron — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Tarn — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Lot — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Cantal — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Tarn-et-Garonne — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated