Aveyron — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Aveyron
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the centrist bloc a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveyron — 1ère circonscription | 38.4% | 34.3% | 21.9% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageAveyron | 30.5%+8.0 | 36.3%−1.9 | 27.3%−5.4 | 1.7%+1.0 |
| National averageFrance | 17.0%+21.4 | 36.0%−1.6 | 29.0%−7.1 | 12.2%−9.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Stéphane MAZARS · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the centrist bloc ahead by 4.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane MAZARS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 24,349 | 43.6 |
| Jean-Philippe CHARTIER | RN and allies | 17,586 | 31.5 |
| Léon THEBAULT | Left (NFP) | 12,702 | 22.7 |
| Antoine DA CRUZ | LR and allies | 811 | 1.5 |
| Arlette SAINT-AVIT | Far left | 418 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cantal — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Aveyron — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Aveyron — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Cantal — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Tarn — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Lozère — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated