Lozère — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Lozère
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 62% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 75%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lozère — 1ère circonscription | 35.0% | 32.8% | 24.0% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageLozère | 35.0% | 32.8% | 24.0% | 7.6% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%−1.0 | 29.0%+3.8 | 12.2%+11.7 | 3.9%+3.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sophie PANTEL · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie PANTEL Elected | Left (NFP) | 15,292 | 35.2 |
| Luc-Etienne GOUSSEAU | RN and allies | 14,743 | 33.9 |
| Pierre MOREL A L'HUISSIER | LR and allies | 10,451 | 24.0 |
| Michel GUIRAL | Others | 2,627 | 6.0 |
| Annie SOUCHON | Far left | 284 | 0.7 |
| Dja ZIDOUN | Left (NFP) | 81 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gard — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Haute-Loire — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Ardèche — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Aveyron — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Hérault — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aveyron — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Forecast updated