Hérault — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Hérault
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hérault — 4ème circonscription | 46.2% | 32.1% | 17.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageHérault | 42.0%+4.2 | 32.4%−0.4 | 14.8%+2.7 | 2.2%−0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+10.2 | 29.0%+3.1 | 17.0%+0.5 | 3.9%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Manon BOUQUIN · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 14.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manon BOUQUIN Elected | RN and allies | 35,216 | 41.3 |
| Sébastien ROME | Left (NFP) | 28,171 | 33.0 |
| Jean-François ELIAOU | Centre (Ensemble) | 19,260 | 22.6 |
| Bleuette SIMON | RN and allies | 1,822 | 2.1 |
| Florence LARUE | Far left | 886 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hérault — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hérault — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, competitive
- Hérault — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Hérault — 7ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gard — 5ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated