Hérault — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Hérault
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hérault — 1ère circonscription | 38.7% | 33.1% | 17.5% | 7.9% |
| Provincial averageHérault | 42.0%−3.3 | 32.4%+0.7 | 14.8%+2.7 | 7.1%+0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+2.8 | 29.0%+4.1 | 17.0%+0.5 | 12.2%−4.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 5.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josyan OLIVA | RN and allies | 20,891 | 34.1 |
| Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,851 | 34.0 |
| Patricia MIRALLES | Centre (Ensemble) | 13,806 | 22.5 |
| Eric CHAVEROCHE | LR and allies | 2,626 | 4.3 |
| Stéphanie LÉVY | LR and allies | 1,479 | 2.4 |
| Alexandre ARGUEL | RN and allies | 1,104 | 1.8 |
| Morgane LACHIVER | Far left | 491 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hérault — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Hérault — 8ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, toss-up
- Hérault — 9ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Gard — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated