Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pyrénées-Orientales
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription | 49.5% | 24.6% | 16.0% | 5.6% |
| Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales | 52.7%−3.3 | 24.0%+0.6 | 14.6%+1.4 | 3.5%+2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+13.5 | 29.0%−4.4 | 17.0%−1.0 | 12.2%−6.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sophie BLANC · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 24.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie BLANC Elected | RN and allies | 21,633 | 45.2 |
| Francis DASPE | Left (NFP) | 12,184 | 25.5 |
| Christophe EUZET | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,720 | 16.1 |
| Annabelle BRUNET | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,328 | 4.9 |
| Loïc MOSZKOWIEZ | LR and allies | 2,092 | 4.4 |
| Delphine DANAT | Others | 790 | 1.7 |
| Jacques CATALDO | RN and allies | 700 | 1.5 |
| Pascale ADVENARD | Far left | 374 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Hérault — 6ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated