Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Pyrénées-Orientales
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the RN and its allies a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrénées-Orientales — 4ème circonscription | 52.0% | 25.1% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Provincial averagePyrénées-Orientales | 52.7%−0.7 | 24.0%+1.1 | 14.6%−3.0 | 3.5%+2.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0%+16.1 | 29.0%−4.0 | 17.0%−5.5 | 12.2%−6.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Michèle MARTINEZ · RN and allies
Previous election (2024)
The RN and its allies won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the RN and its allies ahead by 27.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michèle MARTINEZ Elected | RN and allies | 33,159 | 47.9 |
| Julien BARAILLÉ | Left (NFP) | 17,963 | 26.0 |
| Patricia NADAL | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,454 | 16.5 |
| Philippe ROMAIN | LR and allies | 3,183 | 4.6 |
| Celine DAVESA | Others | 1,937 | 2.8 |
| Odile MAISONNEUVE | RN and allies | 960 | 1.4 |
| Caroline POUPARD | Far left | 575 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Pyrénées-Orientales — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 2ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 1ère circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Aude — 3ème circonscription RN and allies, safe seat
- Forecast updated