Virginia

U.S. Senate · Virginia

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 14%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 56.3%

Mark Warner, incumbent
Republican 43.3%

Bert Mizusawa

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Virginia	56.3%	43.3%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+9.0	48.7%−5.4	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Responsive Management Virginia Commonwealth University	Dec 18, 2024 – Jan 15, 2025	806	adults	Democrat 45 Republican 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Mark Warner · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Mark Warner	Totals pending
Republican primary	Bert Mizusawa	51.5%	124,271 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Mark Warner
source
Republican Challenger

Bert Mizusawa
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026