Rhode Island

U.S. Senate · Rhode Island

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 64.2%

Jack Reed, incumbent
Republican 29.5%

Raymond McKay
Other 6.3%

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Rhode Island	64.2%	29.5%	6.3%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+16.9	48.7%−19.2	4.0%+2.3

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College WPRI-TV	8–Oct 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 25	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	595	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 33	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	20–Aug 24, 2026	722	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 31	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	627	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 35	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	16–Apr 20, 2026	556	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Jack Reed · Democrat

Primary results

Held September 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jack Reed	76.8%	98,473 votes
Republican primary	Raymond McKay	100.0%	20,354 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jack Reed
source
Other Challenger

Bahry, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Raymond McKay
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026