Nebraska

U.S. Senate · Nebraska

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 53.8%

Pete Ricketts, incumbent
Democrat 45.8%

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Nebraska	53.8%	45.8%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	48.7%+5.1	47.3%−1.5	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

11 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 3, 2026	1,808	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Co/Efficient	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,113	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	14–Sep 16, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 48	See the poll
Surveyusa Grant Forbes, LLC	8–Sep 13, 2026	503	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	3–Sep 8, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Impact Research	9–Aug 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	22–Jul 26, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 47	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	8–May 11, 2026	1,165	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 42	See the poll
Gbao Working Class Majority PAC	16–Apr 20, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Impact Research	2–Feb 5, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
Change Research	Mar 28, 2025 – Apr 1, 2025	524	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Pete Ricketts · Republican

Primary results

Held May 12, 2026 · Official source

Republican primary	Pete Ricketts	81.5%	160,547 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Pete Ricketts
source
Other Challenger

Marvin, Mike

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Osborn, Dan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026