Montana

U.S. Senate · Montana

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 28%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 45.9%

Kurt Alme
Democrat 37.5%

Alani Bankhead
Other 16.6%

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Montana	45.9%	37.5%	16.6%
National averageUnited States	48.7%−2.8	47.3%−9.8	4.0%+12.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

15 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local	19–Sep 24, 2026	604	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 26 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Quantus Insights	14–Sep 15, 2026	625	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 26 Independent and others 24	See the poll
Aspect Strategic Montana Freedom PAC	7–Sep 15, 2026	715	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 32 Independent and others 14	See the poll
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026	845	registered voters	Republican 38 Democrat 30 Independent and others 16	See the poll
Peak Insights	23–Aug 25, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 22 Independent and others 19	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Forward Montana	1–Aug 4, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Gqr Contours Inc.	23–Jul 26, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 40	See the poll
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center \| Independent Leadership Council	13–Jul 16, 2026	793	likely voters	Republican 36 Democrat 24 Independent and others 22	See the poll
Grayhouse	23–Jun 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 41 Independent and others 25 Democrat 17	See the poll
Hart Research Associates The Majority Institute	18–Jun 24, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 45	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies The Political Company	8–Jun 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Republican 44 Independent and others 25 Democrat 20	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	13–May 18, 2026	607	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 26 Independent and others 24	See the poll
Change Research Independent Candidates Action	17–Mar 20, 2026	616	likely voters	Republican 37 Democrat 35	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling	14–Feb 18, 2026	607	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 42	See the poll
Yes. Every Kid. Foundation.	23–Jan 26, 2026	500	registered voters	Republican 43 Independent and others 19 Democrat 15	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Daines, Steve · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Alani Bankhead	43.6%	48,772 votes
Republican primary	Kurt Alme	76.1%	128,716 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Alani Bankhead
source
Other Open seat

Austin, Kyle

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Open seat

Bodnar, Seth

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Kurt Alme
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026