Michigan

U.S. Senate · Michigan

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.0%

Abdul El-Sayed
Republican 47.6%

Mike Rogers

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Michigan	52.0%	47.6%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+4.6	48.7%−1.1	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

54 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Insideradvantage	9–Oct 10, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	8–Oct 9, 2026	607	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 47	See the poll
The Tyson Group Alliance for a Better Future	6–Oct 8, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Quantus Insights	5–Oct 6, 2026	744	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Yougov	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	3,947	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 48	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications	October 1, 2026	682	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 41	See the poll
Z To A Research Rust Belt Rising	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	483	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,085	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	24–Sep 28, 2026	1,203	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 48	See the poll
Marist University	24–Sep 27, 2026	1,235	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 44	See the poll
Guidant Polling And Strategy Public First Action	20–Sep 27, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
The Tyson Group Alliance for a Better Future	24–Sep 27, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Big Data Poll Public Polling Project	22–Sep 24, 2026	725	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient	21–Sep 23, 2026	843	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Sep 22, 2026	605	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Gbao Senate Majority PAC	19–Sep 22, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Cygnal/Beacon Research Michigan Enjoyer	18–Sep 21, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 40	See the poll
Suffolk University	16–Sep 20, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 40	See the poll
Torchlight Strategies Common Sense for America PAC	15–Sep 19, 2026	643	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 43	See the poll
Insideradvantage	16–Sep 17, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	12–Sep 14, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	10–Sep 14, 2026	803	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	7–Sep 9, 2026	1,079	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 6, 2026	843	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 44	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 44	See the poll
Epic-Mra	22–Aug 28, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 43	See the poll
Abacus Data	26–Aug 28, 2026	332	likely voters	Democrat 41 Republican 35	See the poll
Michigan State University Institute For Public Policy And Social Research/Yougov	10–Aug 20, 2026	779	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	11–Aug 17, 2026	800	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 39	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	9–Aug 11, 2026	877	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,006	registered voters	Republican 51 Democrat 47	See the poll
Gbao Senate Majority PAC	6–Aug 10, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,215	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 42	See the poll
Epic-Mra MIRS News Service	24–Jul 31, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
Socal Strategies Red Eagle Politics	28–Jul 30, 2026	640	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 41	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications	28–Jul 29, 2026	672	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Business Leaders for Michigan \| Michigan Education Association	22–Jul 24, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 39	See the poll
Quantus Insights	29–Jun 30, 2026	947	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 44	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	25–Jun 28, 2026	602	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 44	See the poll
Data For Progress Working Families Party PAC	15–Jun 22, 2026	709	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll
Zenith Research Common Defense	11–Jun 14, 2026	602	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 42	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	11–Jun 13, 2026	827	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 42	See the poll
Tulchin Research Fighting for Michigan PAC	2–Jun 4, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 41	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	20–May 23, 2026	1,163	likely voters	Democrat 40 Republican 40	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	1–May 7, 2026	606	likely voters	Republican 42 Democrat 41	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber	Apr 28, 2026 – May 1, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 40	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	24–Jan 25, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 43	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit News \| WDIV-TV	2–Jan 6, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 42	See the poll
Mitchell Research & Communications MIRS News Service	18–Nov 21, 2025	616	likely voters	Republican 41 Democrat 38	See the poll
Epic-Mra ABC 12	6–Nov 11, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 42	See the poll
Rosetta Stone	23–Oct 25, 2025	637	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 31	See the poll
Normington, Petts & Associates Yes Michigan	12–Jun 16, 2025	700	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 44	See the poll
Glengariff Group, Inc. Detroit Regional Chamber	5–May 8, 2025	600	registered voters	Republican 47 Democrat 41	See the poll
Target Insyght MIRS News Service	3–Mar 6, 2025	600	registered voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Peters, Gary · Democrat

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	El-Sayed, Abdul	48.5%	740,524 votes
Republican primary	Rogers, Mike	100.0%	879,934 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

El-Sayed, Abdul
source
Republican Open seat

Rogers, Mike
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026