France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — October 1, 2025
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Le Pen 3.7 pts lower, Mélenchon 3.3 pts higher and Dupont-Aignan 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (6 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 4 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Le Pen, Glucksmann, Attal
- Marine Le Pen30.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15%
- Bruno Retailleau14%
- Gabriel Attal12%
- Éric Zemmour5.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 2 · with Bardella, Philippe, Tondelier
- Jordan Bardella31%
- Édouard Philippe19.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Bruno Retailleau12.5%
- Marine Tondelier7.5%
- Éric Zemmour5.5%
- Fabien Roussel4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 3 · with Bardella, Glucksmann, Philippe
- Jordan Bardella30%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15%
- Édouard Philippe15%
- Bruno Retailleau12%
- Éric Zemmour5.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 4 · with Bardella, Philippe, Faure
- Jordan Bardella30%
- Édouard Philippe19.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Bruno Retailleau13%
- Olivier Faure8%
- Éric Zemmour5.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4.5%
- Fabien Roussel4%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →