Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nouvelle-Calédonie
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives another bloc a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Others | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription | 48.3% | 37.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageNouvelle-Calédonie | 44.8%+3.5 | 39.2%−2.0 | 7.6%+3.5 | 5.5%−2.4 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9%+44.4 | 12.2%+25.0 | 29.0%−17.9 | 36.0%−32.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Emmanuel TJIBAOU · Others
Previous election (2024)
Another bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: another bloc ahead by 11.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel TJIBAOU Elected | Others | 32,926 | 44.1 |
| Alcide PONGA | LR and allies | 27,038 | 36.2 |
| Milakulo TUKUMULI | Left (NFP) | 8,906 | 11.9 |
| Gérard POADJA | Centre (Ensemble) | 3,946 | 5.3 |
| Luther VOUDJO | Others | 1,114 | 1.5 |
| Ronald FRERE | Others | 808 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- La Réunion — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated