Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription
Legislative constituency · Nouvelle-Calédonie
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 94% chance of winning.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| Others | LR and allies | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nouvelle-Calédonie — 1ere circonscription | 41.3% | 41.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% |
| Provincial averageNouvelle-Calédonie | 44.8%−3.5 | 39.2%+2.0 | 5.5%+2.4 | 2.9%+2.5 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9%+37.4 | 12.2%+29.0 | 36.0%−28.1 | 17.0%−11.6 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Nicolas METZDORF · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 0.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas METZDORF Elected | LR and allies | 22,316 | 39.8 |
| Omayra Lisa Meun NAISSELINE | Others | 20,370 | 36.3 |
| Philippe DUNOYER | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,791 | 10.3 |
| Veylma FALAEO | Left (NFP) | 2,731 | 4.9 |
| Simon LOUECKHOTE | RN and allies | 2,562 | 4.6 |
| Muneiko HAOCAS | Others | 1,229 | 2.2 |
| Juanita Ciane ANGEXETINE ÉP RAILATI | Others | 344 | 0.6 |
| Cédric DEVAUD | Greens | 235 | 0.4 |
| Pierre-Henri CUENOT | LR and allies | 173 | 0.3 |
| Thomas NASRI | RN and allies | 158 | 0.3 |
| Germaine Toléta NEMIA ÉP BISHOP | Others | 78 | 0.1 |
| Manuel MILLAR | Others | 63 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nouvelle-Calédonie — 2ème circonscription Others, safe seat
- La Réunion — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Forecast updated