La Réunion — 1ère circonscription

Legislative constituency · La Réunion

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies	Greens
La Réunion — 1ère circonscription	43.4%	33.1%	15.8%	4.3%
Provincial averageLa Réunion	42.4%+0.9	31.2%+1.9	14.5%+1.3	0.6%+3.7
National averageFrance	29.0%+14.3	36.0%−2.9	12.2%+3.6	0.4%+3.9

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Philippe NAILLET · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 10.3 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Philippe NAILLET Elected	Left (NFP)	19,186	46.3
Jean Jacques MOREL	RN and allies	11,451	27.6
René-Paul VICTORIA	LR and allies	5,670	13.7
Ludovic SAUTRON	Greens	2,126	5.1
Gaëlle LEBON	RN and allies	1,693	4.1
Gino PONIN BALLOM	LR and allies	699	1.7
Paul TECHER	Far left	450	1.1
Nadine MITRA	Others	148	0.4
Krisna SAWOO	Others	59	0.1

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.