La Réunion — 4ème circonscription

Legislative constituency · La Réunion

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies	Far left
La Réunion — 4ème circonscription	39.4%	29.0%	27.2%	2.0%
Provincial averageLa Réunion	42.4%−3.1	31.2%−2.2	14.5%+12.7	1.5%+0.5
National averageFrance	29.0%+10.3	36.0%−7.0	12.2%+15.0	1.1%+0.9

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Emeline KBIDI · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 10.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Emeline KBIDI Elected	Left (NFP)	22,696	42.3
Jonathan RIVIERE	RN and allies	14,797	27.6
David LORION	LR and allies	13,171	24.5
Imrhane MOULLAN	LR and allies	1,594	3.0
Serge LATCHOUMANIN	Far left	1,189	2.2
Martine DIJOUX	Sovereignists	233	0.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.