Polynésie française — 1ere circonscription
Legislative constituency · Polynésie française
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | Others | RN and allies | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polynésie française — 1ere circonscription | 52.1% | 35.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averagePolynésie française | 50.1%+2.0 | 39.9%−4.2 | 6.3%+2.5 | 3.6%−0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+39.9 | 3.9%+31.7 | 36.0%−27.1 | 0.4%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Moerani FREBAULT · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 16.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moerani FREBAULT Elected | LR and allies | 18,456 | 53.8 |
| Tematai LE GAYIC | Others | 12,243 | 35.7 |
| James HEAUX | RN and allies | 2,168 | 6.3 |
| Jacky BRYANT | Greens | 1,404 | 4.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Polynésie française — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription Centre (Ensemble), safe seat
- Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated