Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription | 37.5% | 36.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Provincial averageSaint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy | 37.5% | 36.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+25.3 | 17.0%+19.0 | 3.9%+9.8 | 36.0%−23.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Frantz GUMBS · Centre (Ensemble)
Previous election (2024)
The centrist bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frantz GUMBS Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,867 | 41.4 |
| Alexandra QUESTEL | LR and allies | 1,378 | 19.9 |
| Philippe PHILIDOR | LR and allies | 1,170 | 16.9 |
| Clément CHAPDELAINE | RN and allies | 680 | 9.8 |
| Ricardo BETHEL | Others | 399 | 5.8 |
| Hervé MEUNIER | Others | 230 | 3.3 |
| Lila KRIMI | Others | 102 | 1.5 |
| Diane FELIX | Others | 93 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Martinique — 2ème circonscription Others, safe seat
- Martinique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated