Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription

Legislative constituency · Guadeloupe

Forecast of July 11, 2026

Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 62.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Others	LR and allies
Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription	74.7%	12.3%	9.7%	2.0%
Provincial averageGuadeloupe	59.3%+15.4	19.1%−6.8	11.5%−1.8	3.5%−1.5
National averageFrance	29.0%+45.7	36.0%−23.7	3.9%+5.8	12.2%−10.2

Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.

Olivier SERVA · Left (NFP)

The united left won by 0.0 points.

Our current projection: the united left ahead by 62.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Olivier SERVA Elected	Left (NFP)	12,042	51.4
Chantal LERUS	Left (NFP)	2,965	12.7
Marvyn MARTOL	Left (NFP)	2,531	10.8
Tarius ROYER	RN and allies	2,252	9.6
Laurence MAQUIABA	Others	1,583	6.8
Alix NABAJOTH	Left (NFP)	1,102	4.7
Danielle DIAKOK	Far left	336	1.4
Dieudonné MBALA MBALA	Others	241	1.0
Rudy Fiacre FARO	LR and allies	197	0.8
Tony REBUS	Others	104	0.4
Rosemary ARMANTRADING	RN and allies	77	0.3

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.