Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Guadeloupe
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription | 56.8% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 6.3% |
| Provincial averageGuadeloupe | 59.3%−2.5 | 4.2%+12.6 | 19.1%−3.3 | 2.3%+4.0 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+27.8 | 17.0%−0.2 | 36.0%−20.2 | 1.1%+5.2 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Elie CALIFER · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 40.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elie CALIFER Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,617 | 57.9 |
| Jennifer LINON | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,763 | 21.9 |
| Lydie Marie MONTHOUËL | RN and allies | 2,570 | 11.8 |
| Jean-Marie NOMERTIN | Far left | 1,396 | 6.4 |
| Claudia BOUCHER | Others | 225 | 1.0 |
| Paola PLANTIER | RN and allies | 221 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Martinique — 2ème circonscription Others, safe seat
- Martinique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Martinique — 1ère circonscription Others, safe seat
- Forecast updated