Mayotte — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Mayotte
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 85.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| LR and allies | RN and allies | Far left | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayotte — 1ère circonscription | 89.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMayotte | 60.1%+29.6 | 21.8%−17.1 | 1.8%+1.8 | 2.2%−0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2%+77.5 | 36.0%−31.3 | 1.1%+2.6 | 3.9%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Estelle YOUSSOUFFA · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 85.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estelle YOUSSOUFFA Elected | LR and allies | 13,640 | 79.5 |
| Kambi Said SAID | LR and allies | 2,513 | 14.6 |
| Mikhaël SAIFY | Far left | 684 | 4.0 |
| Aurélia MAILLARD | RN and allies | 325 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mayotte — 2ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- La Réunion — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- La Réunion — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscription LR and allies, competitive
- Forecast updated