Martinique — 4ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Martinique
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives another bloc a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 54.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Others | RN and allies | LR and allies | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martinique — 4ème circonscription | 67.1% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Provincial averageMartinique | 51.2%+15.9 | 12.4%−0.1 | 12.7%−2.5 | 2.4%+5.4 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9%+63.2 | 36.0%−23.7 | 12.2%−2.0 | 0.4%+7.3 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jean-Philippe NILOR · Others
Previous election (2024)
Another bloc won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: another bloc ahead by 54.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe NILOR Elected | Others | 15,405 | 63.2 |
| Grégory Michel ROY-LARENTRY | RN and allies | 2,408 | 9.9 |
| Philippe PETIT | LR and allies | 2,316 | 9.5 |
| Louis BOUTRIN | Greens | 1,538 | 6.3 |
| Aude GOUSSARD | Others | 1,294 | 5.3 |
| Yvette GALOT | Left (NFP) | 824 | 3.4 |
| Karine THERESE | Greens | 599 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Martinique — 1ère circonscription Others, safe seat
- Martinique — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Martinique — 2ème circonscription Others, safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated