Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription
Legislative constituency · Val-de-Marne
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the LR right a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | LR and allies | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription | 32.1% | 29.1% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
| Provincial averageVal-de-Marne | 44.0%−11.9 | 12.6%+16.4 | 22.9%−0.5 | 16.3%−2.7 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+3.1 | 12.2%+16.8 | 36.0%−13.6 | 17.0%−3.5 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Sylvain BERRIOS · LR and allies
Previous election (2024)
The LR right won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the LR right ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyes LOUFFOK | Left (NFP) | 19,974 | 33.0 |
| Sylvain BERRIOS Elected | LR and allies | 16,916 | 28.0 |
| Frédéric DESCROZAILLE | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,232 | 18.6 |
| Anne-Gaëlle SABOURIN | RN and allies | 11,100 | 18.4 |
| Ludovic MOREL | RN and allies | 682 | 1.1 |
| Valérie DE PIERREPONT | Far left | 567 | 0.9 |
| Hélène CAVAT | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Val-de-Marne — 8ème circonscription LR and allies, safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated