Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Saint-Denis
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription | 44.1% | 30.3% | 14.1% | 7.6% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis | 58.8%−14.7 | 19.9%+10.4 | 11.9%+2.2 | 5.3%+2.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+15.1 | 36.0%−5.7 | 12.2%+1.8 | 17.0%−9.4 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jérôme LEGAVRE · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme LEGAVRE Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,566 | 45.1 |
| Jean-François PERIER | RN and allies | 10,140 | 26.0 |
| Xavier LEMOINE | LR and allies | 5,016 | 12.9 |
| Virginie ROITMAN | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,893 | 12.6 |
| Francis DIJOS | RN and allies | 546 | 1.4 |
| Amal AISSAOUI | Far left | 503 | 1.3 |
| Dominique VINCENOT | Far left | 273 | 0.7 |
| Didier MARTINOT | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
| Serjan KIRMA | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Forecast updated