Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Saint-Denis
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Saint-Denis — 3ème circonscription | 40.7% | 24.2% | 16.5% | 14.9% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis | 58.8%−18.1 | 19.9%+4.3 | 5.3%+11.3 | 11.9%+3.0 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+11.7 | 36.0%−11.8 | 17.0%−0.5 | 12.2%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Thomas PORTES · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 16.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas PORTES Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,648 | 41.7 |
| Denis CRETIN-GIELLY | RN and allies | 10,539 | 21.3 |
| Eric ALLEMON | LR and allies | 5,681 | 11.5 |
| Patrice ANATO | Centre (Ensemble) | 5,521 | 11.1 |
| Stéphanie RICHARD | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,710 | 5.5 |
| Djénéba DIABY | Centre (Ensemble) | 2,452 | 4.9 |
| Maxence BUTTEY | LR and allies | 1,146 | 2.3 |
| Maëlle GAUCHERAND | Far left | 451 | 0.9 |
| Sarah Astrid DACKO | Others | 388 | 0.8 |
| Gaspard NICOLLE | Far left | 1 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription Left (NFP), toss-up
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 8ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), competitive
- Seine-et-Marne — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription LR and allies, toss-up
- Forecast updated