Seine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription
Legislative constituency · Seine-Saint-Denis
Forecast of July 11, 2026
Our forecast gives the united left a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Left (NFP) | LR and allies | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription | 53.4% | 24.5% | 19.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis | 58.8%−5.4 | 11.9%+12.6 | 19.9%−0.5 | 2.2%−0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 29.0%+24.4 | 12.2%+12.2 | 36.0%−16.6 | 3.9%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 577 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Aly DIOUARA · Left (NFP)
Previous election (2024)
The united left won by 0.0 points.
Our current projection: the united left ahead by 28.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aly DIOUARA Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,141 | 33.1 |
| Aude LAGARDE | LR and allies | 9,006 | 24.6 |
| Raquel GARRIDO | Left (NFP) | 8,672 | 23.7 |
| Eric KOZELKO | RN and allies | 6,382 | 17.4 |
| Rodolphe FEGER | Far left | 359 | 1.0 |
| Markeins PIERRE | Left (NFP) | 115 | 0.3 |
| Hélène BALLOUHEY | Far left | 0 | 0.0 |
| Tatiana BOUTIGNON | Others | 0 | 0.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 4ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 9ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 6ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 7ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 10ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Paris — 16ème circonscription Left (NFP), safe seat
- Forecast updated